TV Diversity and the Gray Rhino Problem

I moved to Beijing just over three years ago after living my entire life in the UK.

Living in a different country not only gives you a different perspective on life but also exposes you to different ways of thinking. On a grand scale you can see the difference between how a society based on Judeo-Christian values approaches a problem versus one based on Buddhist or Confucian ideals.

On a smaller scale it can just be the difference between what types of books and films are popular in one country versus another country.

“Gray Rhinos” are one such example – in China you cannot go to a business meeting without someone bringing them up.

Yes you read that right. China is obsessed with “Gray Rhinos”.

China’s President Xi Jinping warned against “Gray Rhinos” in January 2019 and China’s central bank are worried they will destabilize the whole country!

They are not worried that herds of wild animals from Africa will stampede across Asia though.

Rather they are worried about a term first coined by policy analyst Michele Wucker. She uses the “Gray Rhino” is a metaphor for a problem that we know is coming - we can see the dust cloud on the horizon long before the charging animal comes into view - but all too often we don’t take the necessary actions to avert the disaster until we see the actual rhino, by which time it is far too late!

Even though Michele Wucker is American the idea has really struck a chord in China with slowing economic growth, an aging demographic and the signs of other social and economic problems which have yet to come to fruition.

Obvious examples of “Gray Rhinos” in the UK are issues such as climate change, the state pensions’ black hole and of course the funding of the NHS. Everyone can see the growing dust clouds associated with the problem but we don’t seem to be taking the necessary steps to solve the problem while we still have the chance.

For me diversity is possibly the biggest “Gray Rhino” facing British broadcasters today.

The demography of the UK is changing. By 2031 one in five Britons will be BAME (Black Asian and Minority Ethnic) and by 2051 it is forecast that almost one third of the population will be BAME.  

All the research shows this growing segment of the population prefers streaming services more than their white counterparts and feels that services like Netflix do a better job at representing their lives than programmes produced by broadcasters such as the BBC.

Anyone who knows anything about the UK television industry, diversity and the UK’s changing demographic can see the dust clouds of the charging “Gray Rhino” coming.

So if everyone can see a problem coming why are people so bad at dealing with “Gray Rhinos”?

Here are a few theories:

First, many “Gray Rhinos” are often created by our own existing working practices and biases. Admitting that we are the problem requires us to challenge ourselves and change everything that has brought us success in the past. That is no easy exercise.

Second, politicians and executives are far more likely to focus on the short-term, trying to muddle through and hoping to push any hard decisions on to the next person in charge.

Which brings us to the third, and possibly the most important reason we fail to deal with “Gray Rhinos”. Solving them is hard and fraught with danger. If leaders make the wrong the decisions they can actually make matters worse. As Michele Wucker writes; “choosing the wrong response to a problem can hurt a leader more than doing nothing.” (Take the example of global warming; should we invest in wind, solar or wave energy? Making the wrong decision could cost a leader his job –  doing nothing but leaving it to you successor might be the easier course of action)

We can see examples of all three problems in broadcasters trying to deal with the oncoming diversity “Gray Rhino”

First most television executives in the UK have become successful by NOT properly embracing diversity. It is incredibly hard to change everything that has brought you success so far in your life and career for a problem you hope is still way off.

Second, you can see how broadcasters are continuing to muddle through. For example all the broadcasters place their Heads of Diversity within their HR departments and do not give them a seat at the executive board level. Considering this could be the issue that could make or break UK broadcasting seeing the job as just a case of increasing diversity statistics rather than a more strategic role with real power is a classic case of muddling through.

And third dealing with diversity requires some very hard leadership decisions. It may require adopting completely new business models more in line with Netflix and streaming services rather than the traditional broadcasting model for example. Or it may require a completely new way of measuring success and justifying that to shareholders (in the case of ITV and Channel 5) or politicians and the public (in the case of Channel 4 and BBC). And it will almost definitely require serious experimentation of the type of programmes broadcasters produce and the type of people who make them.

But while we might understand the reasons why large organisations do not tackle massive “Gray Rhinos”, experience has shown that invariably inaction is far worse and costlier than taking action. And the cost of not tackling this “Gray Rhino” is British broadcasters run the risk of totally losing large parts of their audience. So maybe it is time for all the British broadcasters to look at the example of China and confront the Gray Rhino racing towards them before it is too late.